Do Electric Vehicles (EVs) Really Pollute More Than Petrol Cars? Let’s Break It Down!

Hey everyone! If you’ve been following me on X (@evelectree), you might have seen my thread from June 10, 2025, where I dug deep into a big question: Do electric vehicles (EVs) have higher life cycle CO2 emissions compared to petrol cars (ICE vehicles)? I got a lot of questions about that thread, so I thought I’d turn it into a detailed blog for all of you at evelectree.com. Let’s fact-check this claim step by step, with numbers, sources, and some simple explanations. Buckle up—we’re going on a green ride! 🚗⚡

What Are We Comparing?

When we talk about “life cycle CO2 emissions,” we mean the total pollution a vehicle causes from the day it’s made to the day it’s driven for its full life. For this comparison, I’m looking at two stages:

1. Production: Emissions from making the vehicle.
2. Operation: Emissions from driving the vehicle over its lifetime.

I’m not including disposal (recycling or scrapping) because there’s no solid data on this for India. Some studies suggest EVs might have a bigger recycling benefit (like -2 tCO2e for EVs vs. -1 tCO2e for ICE), but since we don’t have reliable numbers, I’m leaving this out.

Here, tCO2e means “tonnes of Carbon Dioxide equivalent.” It’s a unit that measures greenhouse gases (like CO2) in terms of how much CO2 would cause the same global warming. So, 1 tCO2e = 1,000 kg of CO2 equivalent.

My Approach: Being Tough on EVs, Easy on Petrol Cars

To make this comparison fair but strict, I’ve taken a pessimistic approach for EVs (assuming higher emissions for them) and a conservative approach for ICE vehicles (assuming lower emissions for them). This way, if EVs still come out cleaner, we can be more confident about the result. Here’s how I set it up:

Assumptions for the Comparison

1. Battery Type for EVs: I’m using Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries for EVs because they’re common in India and are likely the future. LFP batteries pollute less during production compared to other types like NMC (Nickel Manganese Cobalt).
2. Fuel for ICE: For petrol cars, I’m using gasoline (petrol), which is cleaner than diesel in terms of emissions.
3. Lifetime Distance: Both the EV and petrol car will be driven for 1.5 lakh km (150,000 km) in their lifetime.
4. Battery Size for EV: The EV has a 60 kWh battery (kWh is a unit of energy, like how many units of electricity your home uses).
5. No Disposal Emissions: As mentioned, I’m not counting disposal since we don’t have good data.
6. Pessimistic for EVs: I’ll use the highest emission numbers for EVs to make it harder for them to look good.
7. Conservative for ICE: I’ll use lower emission numbers for petrol cars to give them an advantage.

Why Same Emissions for Vehicle Assembly?

One thing I did in my thread was assume that the emissions from assembling the vehicle (not including the battery for EVs) are the same for both EVs and petrol cars: 9 tCO2e. Now, you might wonder—don’t petrol cars have more parts like engines, transmissions, and exhaust systems? Shouldn’t they pollute more during assembly?

Here’s why I kept them the same:

• No India-Specific Data: There aren’t many studies that tell us exactly how much CO2 is emitted while assembling vehicles in India. Most studies are from places like Europe or the US, which don’t match our situation.
• Imported Parts: In India, both EVs and petrol cars use a lot of imported parts. For EVs, things like power electronics or even some battery cells might come from China. For petrol cars, parts like fuel injectors or transmissions are often imported too. Transporting these parts (by ships or trucks) adds emissions, but we don’t have exact numbers for this in India. Since both vehicle types rely on imports, I assumed the transportation emissions are similar.
• Similar Manufacturing Steps: A lot of the assembly process—like making the car body, painting, and putting everything together—is the same for both EVs and petrol cars. These steps (especially painting) are the biggest sources of emissions during assembly, so the difference might not be as big as we think.

I picked 9 tCO2e because it’s within the range I found in some global studies (like 6–9 tCO2e for petrol cars and 4–8 tCO2e for EVs without the battery). Since we don’t have India-specific numbers, I kept it the same for both to simplify things and focus on the bigger picture.

Let’s Calculate: EV Emissions First

EV Production Emissions

1. Battery Production:
   • A study by Dr. Leopold Peiseler (PhD) from Stanford says making LFP batteries emits 54–69 kgCO2e per kWh. Since I’m being pessimistic, I’ll take the highest value: 69 kgCO2e/kWh.
   • For a 60 kWh battery: 60 × 69 = 4,140 kgCO2e = 4.14 tCO2e.
   • Source: https://t.co/wysvI2aNlF
     
2. Vehicle Assembly:
   • As explained, I’m assuming 9 tCO2e for assembling the rest of the EV (without the battery).
3. Total Production Emissions:
   • 4.14 + 9 = 13.14 tCO2e.

EV Operation Emissions (Pessimistic)

1. India’s Electricity Grid:
   • A 2021 report by Climate Transparency says India’s power sector emitted 713.2 gCO2e/kWh in 2021 (that’s 0.713 kgCO2e/kWh). They also mentioned a 2.6% yearly drop in emissions from 2016 to 2021, but I’ll stick with the 2021 number to be pessimistic.
   • Source: https://www.climate-transparency.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/CT2022-India-Web.pdf?
      

1. EV Efficiency:
   • I’m assuming the EV gets 5.55 km per kWh (a bit low to be pessimistic). So, for 100 km, it uses 18 kWh. For 1.5 lakh km (150,000 km), it uses:
     • 150,000 ÷ 5.55 = 27,000 kWh.
2. Operation Emissions:
   • 27,000 × 0.713 = 19,251 kgCO2e = 19.251 tCO2e.
3. Total EV Emissions:
   • 13.14 (production) + 19.251 (operation) = 32.391 tCO2e.

Realistic EV Operation Emissions

Now, let’s look at a more realistic number for 2025. If India’s grid emissions are dropping by 2.6% every year:

• From 2021 to 2025 (4 years): 713.2 × (1 – 0.026)^4 ≈ 643 gCO2e/kWh (0.643 kgCO2e/kWh).
• Operation emissions: 27,000 × 0.643 = 17,361 kgCO2e = 17.361 tCO2e.
• Realistic total EV emissions: 13.14 + 17.361 = 30.501 tCO2e.

Now, Petrol Car (ICE) Emissions

ICE Production Emissions

• Vehicle Assembly: I’m using the same 9 tCO2e as for EVs, for the reasons I explained earlier.
• I’m not counting emissions from extracting oil separately, but I’ll include them in the operation stage as “well-to-tank” emissions.

ICE Operation Emissions (Conservative)

1. Fuel Burning:
   • A Canadian study says burning 1 litre of petrol produces 2.3 kg of CO2.
   • Source: https://natural-resources.canada.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/oee/pdf/transportation/fuel-efficient-technologies/autosmart_factsheet_6_e.pdf
2. Mileage:
   • I’m assuming 14 km per litre (a bit low to be conservative). So, for 100 km, the car uses 7 litres. For 1.5 lakh km:
     • 150,000 ÷ 14 = 10,714 litres ≈ 10,500 litres (rounding down to be conservative).
3. Well-to-Tank (WTT) Emissions:
   • The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) says WTT emissions (from extracting and refining oil) are about 28% of the burning emissions. I’ll use 20% to be conservative for ICE:
     • Burning emissions: 2.3 × 10,500 = 24,150 kgCO2e = 24.15 tCO2e.
     • WTT: 20% of 24.15 = 0.2 × 2.3 × 10,500 = 4,830 kgCO2e = 4.83 tCO2e.
   • Source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544224014580
      

1. Total Operation Emissions:
   • 4.83 + 24.15 = 28.98 tCO2e.
2. Total ICE Emissions
   9 (production) + 28.98 (operation) = 37.98 tCO2e.

Realistic ICE Operation Emissions

Using the EPA’s actual 28% for WTT (instead of my conservative 20%):

• WTT: 0.28 × 2.3 × 10,500 = 6,762 kgCO2e = 6.762 tCO2e.
• Total operation emissions: 6.762 + 24.15 = 30.912 tCO2e.
• Realistic total ICE emissions: 9 + 30.912 = 39.912 tCO2e.

Final Comparison: EVs vs. Petrol Cars

Pessimistic for EVs, Conservative for ICE

• EV emissions: 32.391 tCO2e.
• ICE emissions: 37.98 tCO2e.
• Difference: (37.98 – 32.391) ÷ 37.98 × 100 = 14.7% lower for EVs.

Even when I made it tough for EVs and easy for petrol cars, EVs still pollute 14.7% less over 1.5 lakh km!

Realistic Numbers

• EV emissions (with 2025 grid): 30.501 tCO2e.
• ICE emissions (with 28% WTT): 39.912 tCO2e.
• Difference: (39.912 – 30.501) ÷ 39.912 × 100 = 23.6% lower for EVs.

In a more realistic scenario, EVs pollute 23.6% less—almost a quarter less than petrol cars!
Why EVs Win (And Will Keep Winning)

• Cleaner Batteries: I used LFP batteries, which are less polluting than other types like NMC. As India makes more batteries locally, production emissions will drop even more.
• Cleaner Electricity: India’s grid is getting greener every year (that 2.6% drop in emissions). By 2030, EVs will look even better!
• Recycling Benefits: If we had included disposal, EVs might have a bigger advantage because their batteries can be recycled better.

Wrapping Up

So, do EVs really pollute more than petrol cars? Not at all! Even when I tried to make EVs look bad and petrol cars look good, EVs still came out 14.7% cleaner. With more realistic numbers, they’re 23.6% cleaner over 1.5 lakh km. If you’re thinking about going electric, this should give you some confidence that you’re helping the planet (and saving on fuel costs too 😉).

What do you think? Have you switched to an EV yet? Let me know in the comments, and don’t forget to share this blog if you found it helpful! Follow me on X (@evelectree) for more green updates. 🌳⚡